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"I'll be sitting in the same office by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer stated, joking that if the conversation proceeded smoothly, he might invite us into Downing Street for another talk in the coming year.

There is never truly downtime for leaders. In the hour before we sat down, Starmer had been on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to work out precisely had transpired in Venezuela, where his key political chum, US President Donald Trump, had just targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time our lengthy talk, which was much longer than typical, had concluded, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

Renewed Energy for the New Year

But as the year starts, the Prime Minister appears to have had something of a refresh. Perhaps even just a little downtime with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

That certainly appeared to have left him in a more positive mood than at the difficult conclusion of 2025, a terrible political year for him.

Yet, are he and his supporters deluding themselves if they believe his standing are poised to turn around?

Leadership Questions

The uncomfortable truth for the prime minister is that many of his colleagues are convinced he's not very good at his job. A faction of them would rather gamble and remove him sooner rather than later.

However Starmer was rejecting the idea when we spoke on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he insisted he'd be "evaluated at the poll", insisting nobody would strip his electoral mandate from him – even if the most effective strategy of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 may be for Labour to replace its leader.

"We are in the battle of our lifetime and I aim to lead us," he said.

The May Elections

The issue for the prime minister is that he will be scrutinised far sooner than then – in a mega set of elections in May across the UK. He attempted to argue, perhaps excessively, that they are concerning who runs local authorities, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

True – to some extent. But although he may not want to acknowledge it, No 10 will be held accountable by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir stating that there were no circumstances under which he would step down, even if one of his MPs ran against him for the job, if those elections be very poor for Labour.

Promises of Improvement

He attempted to rationalise his unpopularity by saying the voters was understandably eager for things to improve. He sought to assure the interviewer, and the public, that 2026 would be a change.

The economy would improve notwithstanding rising unemployment, he claimed, when strategies the government implemented during their first rocky year began to show results.

• He vowed to empty asylum hotels ahead of the current target date of 2029, but he wouldn't put a specific date on that.
• He noted too, with the qualification that it was not a certainty, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any time since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He revealed for the first occasion that Western partners were now considering how to combine US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to guard a potential peace.

His big argument is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

Familiar Arguments

The prime minister may have communicated with more energy than observed from him for a some time – more relaxed, perhaps, with more time to talk.

But despite encountering pressure from many directions for a more decisive approach, with greater political clarity, more urgency, more speed and more immediacy, his explanations were familiar ones.

When he finds himself in this much political trouble, is a different approach required a change of tack?

No administration, and especially not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, has everything its own way.

Sir Keir's problems are not just because government is challenging, but because he and his colleagues have erred, including in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The PM told me that he was sorry for saying he was "happy" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an outcry when comments he'd made in the past – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Sir Keir blamed "the process" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting obvious political dangers as the year gets going. His friendship with the US president acquires a new complication after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over a long period, the idea he would be at ease with these events seems unlikely.

International Law and Brexit

He told me he was a "lifelong champion of international law" but we "just lack the full picture at the moment".

Critics demanded condemn it prior to we spoke. And the administration is expected to face more pressure to give an clear view in Parliament in the near future.

And there has always been growing tension in the Labour ranks to undo or remake some of the results of Brexit.

The PM disputes he's doing that, but his new specific commitment to integrate further with the European trading bloc – the huge economic European market – will probably trigger howls that he is breaking his pledge never to try to overturn the results that flowed from Brexit.

A decision to integrate into more of the single market will delight many on his side of the party, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to