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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and recent also-rans rising collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still